OR/14/018 Results - Revision history

Dbk at 09:55, 6 August 2015

2015-08-06T09:55:52Z

Dbk at 09:50, 6 August 2015

2015-08-06T09:50:35Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:50, 6 August 2015
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	{{OR/14/018}}		{{OR/14/018}}
	==Introduction==		==Introduction==
	The following section presents the results produced for the three sets of models runs: historical simulation, climate change using the FFGWL hydrological datasets and land use change. The historical simulation is used as a ~~“basecase”~~ to which the results to the CC and land use simulations are compared. For simplicity long-term average (LTA) potential recharge is used for comparison. The model is run for the full time period (January 1962 to December 1992 for the historical simulation) and then average recharge for this time period produced for each node.		The following section presents the results produced for the three sets of models runs: historical simulation, climate change using the FFGWL hydrological datasets and land use change. The historical simulation is used as a 'basecase' to which the results to the CC and land use simulations are compared. For simplicity long-term average (LTA) potential recharge is used for comparison. The model is run for the full time period (January 1962 to December 1992 for the historical simulation) and then average recharge for this time period produced for each node.

	Two ways of presenting the results are used: the first are maps of LTA recharge for the whole of England and Wales and the second are box-whisker plots. The latter is used to summarise differences in behaviour between catchments.		Two ways of presenting the results are used: the first are maps of LTA recharge for the whole of England and Wales and the second are box-whisker plots. The latter is used to summarise differences in behaviour between catchments.
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	[[Image:14018 fig8.jpg\|thumb\|center\|300px\|'''Figure 8''' Long-term average recharge for the basecase.]]		[[Image:14018 fig8.jpg\|thumb\|center\|300px\|'''Figure 8''' Long-term average recharge for the basecase.]]

	[[Image:14018 fig9.jpg\|thumb\|center\|800px\|'''Figure 9''' LTA recharge for FFGWL climate change runs .]]		[[Image:14018 fig9.jpg\|thumb\|center\|800px\|'''Figure 9''' LTA recharge for FFGWL climate change runs.]]

	==Climate Change==		==Climate Change==
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	Figure 9 presents the LTA results for the 11 RCMs for each time slice. The first column shows absolute values for the LTA for Future Flows historical simulation, the remaining columns display differences. Column two shows the difference between the FFGWL and the historical simulation, columns three to five show the difference between the FFGWL time slices and the FFGWL historical simulation. The difference between the FFGWL historical simulation and that of the actual historical simulation is necessary as the perturbations in the initial conditions for each FFGWL simulation results in different time series of recharge.		Figure 9 presents the LTA results for the 11 RCMs for each time slice. The first column shows absolute values for the LTA for Future Flows historical simulation, the remaining columns display differences. Column two shows the difference between the FFGWL and the historical simulation, columns three to five show the difference between the FFGWL time slices and the FFGWL historical simulation. The difference between the FFGWL historical simulation and that of the actual historical simulation is necessary as the perturbations in the initial conditions for each FFGWL simulation results in different time series of recharge.

	Table 4 shows the summary of the differences for the average recharge for the model simulation. The differences in the average have been summarised by the bars in the right hand column of the table, with blue representing an increase and red a decrease. Bars are produced for the difference between each time slice (~~2010-39~~, ~~2040-2069~~, ~~2070-99~~) and the simulated historic.		Table 4 shows the summary of the differences for the average recharge for the model simulation. The differences in the average have been summarised by the bars in the right hand column of the table, with blue representing an increase and red a decrease. Bars are produced for the difference between each time slice (2010–39, 2040–2069, 2070–99) and the simulated historic.

	Since each RCM has different starting conditions so as to achieve the variability in the future predictions (three timeslices: 2010-39, 2040-2069, 2070-99). These variations between the RCMs also affect the simulation of the historical period which can be compared against recharge calculated for observed data. Therefore, to understand how the different RCMs perform against know conditions the results are compared with those computed from observed data. These are presented in Table 4 in column 2 and presented pictorially in column 6. The latter is shown to illustrate the difference between the simulated historic (resulting from the RCM) and the historical simulation based on gridded observed data.		Since each RCM has different starting conditions so as to achieve the variability in the future predictions (three timeslices: 2010-39, 2040-2069, 2070-99). These variations between the RCMs also affect the simulation of the historical period which can be compared against recharge calculated for observed data. Therefore, to understand how the different RCMs perform against know conditions the results are compared with those computed from observed data. These are presented in Table 4 in column 2 and presented pictorially in column 6. The latter is shown to illustrate the difference between the simulated historic (resulting from the RCM) and the historical simulation based on gridded observed data.

Dbk: Protected "OR/14/018 Results" ([Edit=Allow only administrators] (indefinite) [Move=Allow only administrators] (indefinite)) [cascading]

2015-05-05T15:12:27Z

Protected "OR/14/018 Results" ([Edit=Allow only administrators] (indefinite) [Move=Allow only administrators] (indefinite)) [cascading]

← Older revision	Revision as of 16:12, 5 May 2015
(No difference)

Dbk: /* Catchment summaries using Box-Whisker plots */

2015-04-20T10:54:28Z

Catchment summaries using Box-Whisker plots

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:54, 20 April 2015
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	[[Image:14018 fig14.jpg\|thumb\|center\|~~400px~~\| '''Figure 14''' LTA recharge for changes to land use: LCM and single type coverage. ]]		[[Image:14018 fig14.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| '''Figure 14''' LTA recharge for changes to land use: LCM and single type coverage. ]]


	National maps of annual long term average recharge totals and differences, in mm/a simulated by ZOODRM (for various percentage land use runs, all assuming historic climate)		National maps of annual long term average recharge totals and differences, in mm/a simulated by ZOODRM (for various percentage land use runs, all assuming historic climate)

	[[Image:14018 fig15.jpg\|thumb\|center\|~~400px~~\| '''Figure 15''' LTA recharge for changes to land use: like for like changes .]]		[[Image:14018 fig15.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| '''Figure 15''' LTA recharge for changes to land use: like for like changes .]]

	[[Image:14018 fig16.jpg\|thumb\|center\|~~400px~~\| '''Figure 16''' Plots of differences between recharge values calculated with selected dominant land use types and those calculated with actual dominant LCM 2000 .]]		[[Image:14018 fig16.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| '''Figure 16''' Plots of differences between recharge values calculated with selected dominant land use types and those calculated with actual dominant LCM 2000 .]]

	[[Image:14018 fig17.jpg\|thumb\|center\|~~400px~~\| '''Figure 17''' Plots of differences between recharge values calculated with selected variations in percentage LCM 2000 and those calculated with actual percentage LCM2000.]]		[[Image:14018 fig17.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| '''Figure 17''' Plots of differences between recharge values calculated with selected variations in percentage LCM 2000 and those calculated with actual percentage LCM2000.]]

	[[category:OR/14/018 Land Use, Climate Change and Water Availability: Preliminary modelling of impacts of climate change and land use change on groundwater recharge for England and Wales \| 04]]		[[category:OR/14/018 Land Use, Climate Change and Water Availability: Preliminary modelling of impacts of climate change and land use change on groundwater recharge for England and Wales \| 04]]

Dbk: /* Long-term averages for England and Wales */

2015-04-20T10:52:07Z

Long-term averages for England and Wales

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	[[Image:14018 table4.jpg\|thumb\|center\|~~300px~~\|'''Table 4''' Summary of differences in average LTA recharge for each RCM timescale (mM/a).]]		[[Image:14018 table4.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Table 4''' Summary of differences in average LTA recharge for each RCM timescale (mM/a).]]

	Note: Average differences are shown as coloured squares one for each column of data; blue is a positive difference and red is a negative one.		Note: Average differences are shown as coloured squares one for each column of data; blue is a positive difference and red is a negative one.

Dbk: /* Discussion of RCM variability */

2015-04-20T10:44:42Z

Discussion of RCM variability

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:44, 20 April 2015
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	The results described above demonstrate that there is a significant variability between LTA recharge produced for each RCM for each timeslice. The RCM which consistently produces the greatest recharge is projection H (afixh). This is wetter for the historic simulation as well as the future predictions suggesting consistency between the historic simulation and future prediction. For the dryer, low recharge case then the results are more mixed, but projection A (afixa) appears to produce the lowest recharge, albeit for the 2020s. For the later timeslices (50s and 80s) then J and K (afixj and afixk) predominate. The latter are dryer for the historic simulation and the future predictions, again suggesting consistency between the historic simulation and future prediction.		The results described above demonstrate that there is a significant variability between LTA recharge produced for each RCM for each timeslice. The RCM which consistently produces the greatest recharge is projection H (afixh). This is wetter for the historic simulation as well as the future predictions suggesting consistency between the historic simulation and future prediction. For the dryer, low recharge case then the results are more mixed, but projection A (afixa) appears to produce the lowest recharge, albeit for the 2020s. For the later timeslices (50s and 80s) then J and K (afixj and afixk) predominate. The latter are dryer for the historic simulation and the future predictions, again suggesting consistency between the historic simulation and future prediction.

	[[Image:14018 ~~fig10a.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| ]]~~		[[Image:14018 fig10.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 10''' Plots of historic and future recharge values.]]
	~~[[Image:14018 fig10b.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| ]]~~
	~~[[Image:14018 fig10c~~.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 10''' Plots of historic and future recharge values.]]

	[[Image:14018 ~~fig11a.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| ]]~~		[[Image:14018 fig11.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 11''' Plots of differences between simulated future LTA recharge values and historic LTA recharge values.]]
	~~[[Image:14018 fig11b.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| ]]~~
	~~[[Image:14018 fig11c~~.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 11''' Plots of differences between simulated future LTA recharge values and historic LTA recharge values.]]

	[[Image:14018 fig12.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 12''' Position of east-west and north-west stripes.]]		[[Image:14018 fig12.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 12''' Position of east-west and north-west stripes.]]

			[[Image:14018 fig13.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 13''' Plots of future recharge values over selected stripes.]]
	[[Image:14018 ~~fig13a.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|]]~~
	~~[[Image:14018 fig13b~~.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 13''' Plots of future recharge values over selected stripes.]]

	==Land use change==		==Land use change==

Dbk: /* Historical simulation */

2015-04-20T10:27:06Z

Historical simulation

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:27, 20 April 2015
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	[[Image:14018 fig8.jpg\|thumb\|center\|300px\|'''Figure 8''' Long-term average recharge for the basecase.]]		[[Image:14018 fig8.jpg\|thumb\|center\|300px\|'''Figure 8''' Long-term average recharge for the basecase.]]

	[[Image:14018 fig9.jpg\|thumb\|center\|~~600px~~\|'''Figure 9''' LTA recharge for FFGWL climate change runs .]]		[[Image:14018 fig9.jpg\|thumb\|center\|800px\|'''Figure 9''' LTA recharge for FFGWL climate change runs .]]

	==Climate Change==		==Climate Change==

Dbk: /* Historical simulation */

2015-04-20T10:26:51Z

Historical simulation

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:26, 20 April 2015
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	[[Image:14018 fig8.jpg\|thumb\|center\|300px\|'''Figure 8''' Long-term average recharge for the basecase.]]		[[Image:14018 fig8.jpg\|thumb\|center\|300px\|'''Figure 8''' Long-term average recharge for the basecase.]]

	[[Image:14018 fig9.jpg\|thumb\|center\|~~300px~~\|'''Figure 9''' LTA recharge for FFGWL climate change runs .]]		[[Image:14018 fig9.jpg\|thumb\|center\|600px\|'''Figure 9''' LTA recharge for FFGWL climate change runs .]]


	==Climate Change==		==Climate Change==

Dbk: /* name="_TOC_250007" */

2015-04-17T11:56:36Z

name="_TOC_250007"

Show changes

Dbk: /* Discussion of RCM variability */

2015-04-17T11:50:57Z

Discussion of RCM variability

Show changes

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:54, 20 April 2015
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	[[Image:14018 fig14.jpg\|thumb\|center\|~~400px~~\| '''Figure 14''' LTA recharge for changes to land use: LCM and single type coverage. ]]		[[Image:14018 fig14.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| '''Figure 14''' LTA recharge for changes to land use: LCM and single type coverage. ]]


	National maps of annual long term average recharge totals and differences, in mm/a simulated by ZOODRM (for various percentage land use runs, all assuming historic climate)		National maps of annual long term average recharge totals and differences, in mm/a simulated by ZOODRM (for various percentage land use runs, all assuming historic climate)

	[[Image:14018 fig15.jpg\|thumb\|center\|~~400px~~\| '''Figure 15''' LTA recharge for changes to land use: like for like changes .]]		[[Image:14018 fig15.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| '''Figure 15''' LTA recharge for changes to land use: like for like changes .]]

	[[Image:14018 fig16.jpg\|thumb\|center\|~~400px~~\| '''Figure 16''' Plots of differences between recharge values calculated with selected dominant land use types and those calculated with actual dominant LCM 2000 .]]		[[Image:14018 fig16.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| '''Figure 16''' Plots of differences between recharge values calculated with selected dominant land use types and those calculated with actual dominant LCM 2000 .]]

	[[Image:14018 fig17.jpg\|thumb\|center\|~~400px~~\| '''Figure 17''' Plots of differences between recharge values calculated with selected variations in percentage LCM 2000 and those calculated with actual percentage LCM2000.]]		[[Image:14018 fig17.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| '''Figure 17''' Plots of differences between recharge values calculated with selected variations in percentage LCM 2000 and those calculated with actual percentage LCM2000.]]

	[[category:OR/14/018 Land Use, Climate Change and Water Availability: Preliminary modelling of impacts of climate change and land use change on groundwater recharge for England and Wales \| 04]]		[[category:OR/14/018 Land Use, Climate Change and Water Availability: Preliminary modelling of impacts of climate change and land use change on groundwater recharge for England and Wales \| 04]]

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:44, 20 April 2015
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	The results described above demonstrate that there is a significant variability between LTA recharge produced for each RCM for each timeslice. The RCM which consistently produces the greatest recharge is projection H (afixh). This is wetter for the historic simulation as well as the future predictions suggesting consistency between the historic simulation and future prediction. For the dryer, low recharge case then the results are more mixed, but projection A (afixa) appears to produce the lowest recharge, albeit for the 2020s. For the later timeslices (50s and 80s) then J and K (afixj and afixk) predominate. The latter are dryer for the historic simulation and the future predictions, again suggesting consistency between the historic simulation and future prediction.		The results described above demonstrate that there is a significant variability between LTA recharge produced for each RCM for each timeslice. The RCM which consistently produces the greatest recharge is projection H (afixh). This is wetter for the historic simulation as well as the future predictions suggesting consistency between the historic simulation and future prediction. For the dryer, low recharge case then the results are more mixed, but projection A (afixa) appears to produce the lowest recharge, albeit for the 2020s. For the later timeslices (50s and 80s) then J and K (afixj and afixk) predominate. The latter are dryer for the historic simulation and the future predictions, again suggesting consistency between the historic simulation and future prediction.

	[[Image:14018 ~~fig10a.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| ]]~~		[[Image:14018 fig10.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 10''' Plots of historic and future recharge values.]]
	~~[[Image:14018 fig10b.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| ]]~~
	~~[[Image:14018 fig10c~~.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 10''' Plots of historic and future recharge values.]]

	[[Image:14018 ~~fig11a.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| ]]~~		[[Image:14018 fig11.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 11''' Plots of differences between simulated future LTA recharge values and historic LTA recharge values.]]
	~~[[Image:14018 fig11b.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\| ]]~~
	~~[[Image:14018 fig11c~~.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 11''' Plots of differences between simulated future LTA recharge values and historic LTA recharge values.]]

	[[Image:14018 fig12.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 12''' Position of east-west and north-west stripes.]]		[[Image:14018 fig12.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 12''' Position of east-west and north-west stripes.]]

			[[Image:14018 fig13.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 13''' Plots of future recharge values over selected stripes.]]
	[[Image:14018 ~~fig13a.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|]]~~
	~~[[Image:14018 fig13b~~.jpg\|thumb\|center\|500px\|'''Figure 13''' Plots of future recharge values over selected stripes.]]

	==Land use change==		==Land use change==